Employer confidence continues to soften, but the pace of decline in job vacancies has slowed — the weakest rate of vacancy contraction since September 2024.
At a glance
- Unemployment rate: 4.6% (February to April 2025)
- Job vacancies: 736,000 (March to May 2025), down 63,000 on the quarter and 59,000 below January–March 2020 levels
- Payrolled employees: 30.2 million — early May estimates down 109,000 on the month and 274,000 on the year
- Average total pay growth: 5.3% including bonuses (Feb–Apr 2025)
- Pay growth in real terms: up 1.5% (Feb–Apr 2025)
- Claimant count: 1.735 million (May 2025)
Data source: Office for National Statistics, Recruitment & Employment Confederation, Change Specialists Ltd — June 2025.
About these figures. These are the statistics as the Office for National Statistics published them at the time of this report. ONS routinely revises Labour Force Survey estimates afterwards, so today’s figures for the same period may differ slightly. For the latest official figures, see our UK labour market tracker, which is refreshed daily direct from ONS and the Bank of England.
What it means
We may be approaching a turning point in the labour market’s downturn, potentially for contract work — though caution remains.
Many organisations are still not replacing leavers in order to manage costs, which points to ongoing uncertainty in workforce planning.
The labour market closely tracks the broader economy, and these figures reflect the continued impact of tough winter months and ongoing inflationary pressure.
Written by Julian Brown, Practice Director, Change Specialists.
