Employer confidence continues to soften, but the pace of decline in job vacancies has slowed — the weakest rate of vacancy contraction since September 2024.
At a glance
Unemployment rate: 4.6% (February to April 2025)
Job vacancies: 736,000 (March to May 2025), down 63,000 on the quarter and 59,000 below January–March 2020 levels
Payrolled employees: 30.2 million — early May estimates down 109,000 on the month and 274,000 on the year
Average total pay growth: 5.3% including bonuses (Feb–Apr 2025)
Pay growth in real terms: up 1.5% (Feb–Apr 2025)
Claimant count: 1.735 million (May 2025)
Data source: Office for National Statistics, Recruitment & Employment Confederation, Change Specialists Ltd — June 2025.
About these figures. These are the statistics as the Office for National Statistics published them at the time of this report. ONS routinely revises Labour Force Survey estimates afterwards, so today’s figures for the same period may differ slightly. For the latest official figures, see our UK labour market tracker, which is refreshed daily direct from ONS and the Bank of England.
What it means
We may be approaching a turning point in the labour market’s downturn, potentially for contract work — though caution remains.
Many organisations are still not replacing leavers in order to manage costs, which points to ongoing uncertainty in workforce planning.
The labour market closely tracks the broader economy, and these figures reflect the continued impact of tough winter months and ongoing inflationary pressure.
Written by Julian Brown, Practice Director, Change Specialists.
Viewing uncertainty as opportunity is a trait displayed by leaders who know how to thrive through change. At Change Specialists, we work alongside organisations at critical inflection points. What we see is that leaders who thrive are those who view change not as disruptive but as a catalyst for renewal. What sets them apart is resilience, clarity of purpose, and the ability to adapt without losing direction.
As we navigate global instability, as well as policy flux, businesses require resilient leadership.
Resilient Leadership In Action
Resilient leaders keep their nerve when others flinch. Consider Carolyn McCall, CEO of ITV. When the broadcasting industry was upended by COVID-19, she doubled down on digital investment and pivoted content strategy to accelerate ITVX. Her leadership stabilised the business and positioned the company for growth in a rapidly shifting landscape.
Contrast that with organisations paralysed by indecision or over-reliant on “the way we’ve always done it.” Resilience is about calculated courage and refusing to let fear dictate pace.
Strategic Adaptation Over Reactive Chaos
Adaptation should be deliberate, not desperate. Take the example of Rolls-Royce. Faced with reduced demand in civil aviation, it restructured operations and diversified into low-carbon technology. Strategic decisions were made with long-term direction in mind to lead future sectors.
In our client work at Change Specialists, we often support organisations during post-merger integration or major programme reset. The most effective leaders we encounter are those who manage transition with both hands: one steady on the tiller, the other adjusting the sails.
Innovation Born From Crisis
Innovation does not flourish in comfort. Crisis forces clarity. The COVID-19 response by the NHS, including the development of virtual wards and expanded use of AI in diagnostics, demonstrated how necessity accelerates change that should have happened years ago.
As one NHS Digital leader remarked during a programme we supported: “We didn’t break the rules, we stopped hiding behind them.”
This attitude, forward thinking and pragmatic, is what more UK leaders need to adopt in facing future challenges, from Net Zero transformation to digital disruption.
Understanding The Policy And Economic Backdrop
The UK policy environment is volatile: shifting fiscal strategies, evolving regulatory burdens, and divergent regional investment. Recent ONS data shows business investment rising again after years of stagnation, yet confidence remains fragile.
Leaders who thrive pay attention to the signals beneath the noise. They read the Bank of England’s positioning as context for strategic timing. They also recognise that government reform agendas, digital procurement frameworks like G-Cloud 14, are opportunities for those ready to move, not excuses for delay.
Turning Insight Into Action: Case Study
A UK-based infrastructure client of ours was caught mid-programme during a government funding pause. Rather than stall, their leadership team supported by us restructured delivery around outcome-based milestones, engaged local authorities proactively, and secured private partnership funding. They gained programme continuity which led to expanded stakeholder buy in and future resilience was built into their operating model.
As Churchill once said: “To improve is to change; to be perfect is to change often.”
